This is for the record, so that in case it comes true I can say “I nailed it”:

I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if, at some point this week, Sarah Palin’s ethical troubles suddenly blow so wide open that McCain is forced to withdraw her name from candidacy and select someone else. This would be an example of the Miers Maneuver.

Withdrawing Palin’s name might seem politically infeasible since it would show that McCain is grossly incompetent at the most basic of presidential tasks, but then again it already looks that way. He could easily claim, “see, I learn from my mistakes.” Or he could just throw her under the Straight Talk Express and claim she had assured him that there was nothing to the allegations, etc etc.

Update: Ok, so I didn’t nail it. Enjoy your nominee, dudes

3 thoughts on “Palin”

  1. Oh, I certainly agree it's not impossible she'd be pulled out. My personal guess is that she might just make some misstep that's unforgivable enough, say something really offensive--it doesn't have to be Troopergate or whatever.

    I disagree with the second part, though. Look at what happened with Miers. Bush was roundly mocked for the error. She's still brought up as one of the great errors of his presidency (you know, along with that error where all those people died, and oh yeah, that other error where all those people died). And I would argue that VP selection is more important, in terms of potential consequences for the person doing the selecting. If Palin is/becomes guilty of something so astronomically offensive that she actually has to be removed from the campaign, it's game over for McCain; he will be completely overshadowed by that mistake. Especially because one of the primary criticisms leveled against him is that he is impetuous, prone to rash or overemotional decision-making, etc. And even more because (linked to this character flaw) a major narrative being constructed around his choice of Palin is that he did not properly vet her. So I would say that--unless she turns out to, you know, be a secret member of the K.K.K.--the Repubs will spin it as best they can without removing her.

    Perhaps it's just my browser but the text in this response box is crazy small. And I don't even wear glasses! (Maybe that's the problem...)

  2. If McCain decides to drop Palin, he is dead meat as a Presidential candidate. No way he can recover then. Google "Thomas Eagleton" for an historical analogy: I still remember first hearing the radio story about "shock therapy" and realizing this completely sank McGovern's chances. Mom

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